The Rod Underhill Blog
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Business Model Patents in Trouble

A US Appeals Court has yesterday issued a ruling that may well put many business method patents in jeopardy. Business method concepts became patentable in 1998 after the same court ruled that such concepts could be patented. A floodgate then opened up with thousands of business ideas becoming registered patents. 

One of the most famous patents of this ilk was the Amazon.com One Click patent, where people could order books or whatever by simply clicking a "buy now" button.  (The buyer's credit card and shipping address was previously entered by the user, so by clicking the button, the card would be charged and the book or whatever shipped.)

The legal issue involves concepts that are little more than ideas (although good ideas). The Appeals Court has apparently embraced the old school concept that patents should be related to machines or provde some process that transforms something into something new.  Anyone with a registered or pending patent regarding a business model should contact their patent attorney at once for clarification. 

Accordingly, many famed business model patents could now come under attack.  It is expected that this ruling will be appealed to the US Supreme Court HOWEVER, stats would show that most such appeals fail. 



 (Shout out to Brett at Chrometa for bringing the ruling to my attention.)



A Guest Article

Please read my guest article published on the Chrometa related blog at http://www.chrometa.com/blog/index.php

It's all about murder and motion study.  

Thanks

Rod

Peeking at the Future

Here's what one should expect to see in the near future.

1. Gasoline. Expect gas prices to continue to fall as we get closer to the election.  Gas prices always go down prior to an election.  After Obama is elected, expect gas prices to more or less remain somewhat lower until Big Oil figures out what plans Obama has for Big Oil.  Expect Obama to take some revenge for unlimited profits that Big Oil has been squeezing out of the hapless people of the USA.  Expect regulations to be created and thrown at Big Oil sometime next Summer. Expect Big Oil to gripe. Poor, poor Big Oil.

2. Credit.  Credit is tight, but will start to loosen up shortly. Don't expect the crazy easy credit days of the recent past to return for several years, but credit will more or less start to normalize where it should be over the next several months. Home lines will be tight and harder to get for a couple of years, but people have always purchased homes, so expect home credit to be reasonable over 2009 but don't expect another sub prime give away for a generation. Expect Obama to throw new regulations at the lending industry in the Summer of 2009. Start ups using credit cards to fund their initial businesses will find that a bit tough.  Lately, people have had their credit limits slashed or cannot get credit even though they have great credit ratings. That will change shortly, things will loosen up as more money flows to the lenders. Companies in the money space have been freaking out, but they will calm down in short order. Look for Holiday shopping to be a bit lower than normal dollar amount wise but nothing alarming. 

3.  Start Ups.  Brisk. Expect to see competition though, with stock investments, as investors buy discounted stock on the Market for the next few months.  Expect the Market to remain an up and downie thing for a while but generally moving back upwards as people figure out that there is still food to buy at the store, still movies to see at the theater, and no Second Depression on the way. All that talk about a Second Depression, silly that is. 

4. The economy in general will start to show signs of recovery after Obama is elected.  Caribou Barbie will become a curiosity for historians swiftly enough. 

5. The media is searching for start ups to write about.  They've written this week about Inspot.org (how odd, that) and BigString.com.  They're looking for your start up to write about too, just give them a twist and away you go, free publicity. They need an "angle", so give it to them. 

Would You Fund Either of These Companies?

 

Here’s a new feature: BE THE VC!  This is where YOU get to make some preliminary evaluations about tech companies. Pretend you are a VC, or rather, a key employee at a major VC. You’ve been asked to take a preliminary look a couple of companies and decide whether you want to invest the time to investigate the company further for the potential of giving them what may be millions in venture capital funding.

There are two companies on your desk today for preliminary evaluation.  You have no business plans, no marketing plans, and no executive summaries to review.  Your boss simply emailed you and wrote,“take a look at these companies and tell me what you think.”  Ready? Let’s start by reading your boss’s email.

“There are two companies I want you to briefly check out and tell me what you think.  The first one my husband told me about. It’s called ‘Big String.com.’  Check it out, it’s some email thing or something.  Lotta people use email. Could be cool. 

The second one is called Inspot.com.  I dunno about that one. My doctor told me about it, but I don’t want to discuss that.  Also, I left a bottle of pills on my desk and can’t find them. My back is bad and I can’t look under my desk, could you come over to myoffice later and help me look?”

Fair enough, you think. You proceed first to the Big String  site.  “Wow!” you think, “pretty interesting.”  As you read the promotional material on the site, you see that they provide an email service  that allows a person to control emails in some novel ways.

For example:

You can keep people from permanently storing your emails.

You can keep your messages or attachments such as photos from being forwarded.  (You wonder at this point, “yeah, but can you keep them from being printed and rescanned?”  You make a note about that and move forward.)

You notice that the technology mentioned is “Patent Pending.”   Okay, but you remind yourself that a patent is not a patent until it is granted.  Then you think, “but, hey, this does sound novel, good chance it could be patented.” You make another note to discuss the possibility of the patent being granted with your in house patent counsel and move on.

Reading more, you learn that the Big String technology can allow you to destroy email that you have sent.  “Hmm, oh boy,” you muse to yourself, “I sure could have used THAT feature a few times.”  You notice that emails can be edited after you send them, too.  You figure that such a feature could be wonderful as long as you changed or destroyed an email BEFORE someone readit.  You wonder if they have the technology to lock up an email and where the receiver cannot open it without calling you on the phone? That could be a good safety feature….

So far, you like what you see. You notice a link to the Over the Counter stock exchange, what is often referred to as the “Fourth Market.” You follow the link.

Zounds! Their stock is trading for 27 cents a share?!  You wonder for a moment. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? You like their concept, and think for a moment about buying a few thousand shares.  Then you return to the job at hand. What to tell the boss about this company?

You need to send her a brief email.  What do you say at this point? Think about it for a moment. I’ll wait.

Okay…here’s what you say…

Boss Lady:

“Big String looks extremely interesting. I would need to  know if their technology is likely patentable. We might want to discuss the issue with our in house patent lawyer to get some general feedback. I propose we meet with Big String and discuss investment with them. Let’s get their business plan and check it out. We will probably want to see their patent applications and have access to their patent lawyer.

They could certainly have a great sustainable unfair advantage here. One downside is that people may have to use their software—this could retard adoption maybe, as it would add on an extra burden for people whouse Outlook, AOL, etc. I don’t know about that, so we should ask. I’m not sureat this point, I will have to read more about how their system actually works, but I am intrigued.

I don’t know anything about their executive team at this  point.  We need to know much more about that issue.

Their stock is at 27 cents per share on the OTC. It strikes me as somewhat odd that they are on the OTC, but we’ll have to ask them about that. This may cause some issues if we go IPO with them, let’s talk to our CFO about that. I am not sure how it works regarding converting from the OTC to NASDAQ and so forth. Do we have to go private, buy back the stock and then go to the exit strategy we really want? I really don’t know at this point.

Bottom Line: let’s contact them and start the discussions with them. I recommend you schedule a meeting with their CEO.  Perhaps you can review their business plan etc first and also send it to me for my review and we’ll go from there.  I’m excited to learn more about these guys. This  company has been around for several years and it looks like they finally came across a technology worth crowing about. Their site runs very slow, they may have some financial issues as they have been in business for quite a while and are perhaps struggling, it’s hard to tell at this point. You should find out if they are in debt, if they have had previous rounds of funding and so forth right off the bat. Anyway, they look cool at this point, so let’s learn more. “

You send off the email and think “hmm, wish I had that BigString thingie NOW, sometimes I want to tweak an email I send to the boss afterI send it.”

You then turn your attention to Inspot.com.  Hmm, that can’t be right. What you findi s a company that is involved in something other than the subject you were expecting to see.  So, you give  “In spot.ORG” a try. Jackpot! “Silly boss, you’d think she would, oh, nevermind…”

What the heck? Inspot.org provides a system where you can anonymously send a greeting card to a person that alerts them that you might have exposed them to asexually transmitted disease.”

Okay, that’s useful, you think. Sort of. Well, okay, it’s useful, sure. Easier to send an email then talk to a person in person. Kind of chicken, but better than not telling them.

You muse:

“Just how many people would use this thing? Well…I guess people who have a LOT of sexual partners who are having sex with people whohave a LOT of sexual partners. But, if you had a girl friend, and you sent it to her, odds are she would know it came from you unless she has a lot of other sexual partners. “

But what alarms you is the possibility of abuse of the system.  People sending emails to other people….”Hey, sorry about the STD! You’re really screwed now.  Hahahahahh!”  You shudder.  You notice that inspot.org claims that abuse has been low for them. “Sure,” you think, “until people really discover this site! Then look out!”

Hmm, that makes you take a look at their traffic. Aha! Their traffic is very low….

What do you tell your boss?

Here you go…

Boss:

Inspot.org is very interesting and they provide a much needed social service. The ability to tell people that you have exposed them to a STD without revealing one’s identity is no doubt a very valuable service that benefits humanity.  Their site traffic is very low. I have noticed some news stories about the site and their service, so their traffic could go up shortly. However, I predict that if their traffic goes up it will probably be due to bad guys discovering the site and using it to harass innocent people. Inspot.org has to figure out how to deal with that problem before it occurs.

They are probably a not for profit anyway.  Yep, I just looked, not for profit for sure. I wish them well, their cause is noble to the max, but I think they have a world of heartache coming their way with bogus emails being sent through their system once word gets out about their site. They REALLY better figure out a work around for that asap. Anyway, this one is not for us for a lot of reasons, but I sure wish them well.

I will come by later today and help you find your medicine. Talk to you soon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick Notes

QUICKNOTES FROM ROD

A few brief blurbs of interest for Friday. 

1. Chrometa.com. Start Up "Time Tracking Buddy" has a new name, Chrometa.com.  This new start up is very exciting and is moving forward quickly.  BusinessWeek Author Stephan Baker acknowledged Chrometa (Time Tracking Buddy at the time of publication) as the first sponsor of "The Numerati" (the title of Baker's seminal work regarding mathematics and technology) as a Google keyword. I will be writing an in depth article about Chrometa in the new future.  Top level execs of large corporations would be advised to take a close look at Chrometa and how they help corporations control employee costs/efficiency. Crucial work in this area is needed by most if not all corporations during this economic crisis.  However, note that anyone who has billable hours of any nature, such as attorneys, can also benefit from what Chrometa has to offer.   www.chrometa.com  

2.  You might notice "Goldpaq" advertising in heavy rotation on national television networks. They buy gold and other valuables. I did the trademark work for them over the last few months, with their mark being successfully published for opposition. 

3.  Thomas Jefferson School of Law, in San Diego, has asked me to return to serve as an adjunct Professor of Law for this upcoming Spring Semester. I will be teaching Music Licensing Law for the third time. They seem to offer this course every few years so that law students will have a chance to take it during their three year stay at the school.  It's a two hour course, so I will be tied up for a couple of hours early Friday afternoons during the semester, but otherwise no impact should be noticed. I have also previously taught Internet law at TJSL.  

Have great weekend!






Quantcast

I feel sort of dumb that I didn't know about Quantcast.com until yesterday when my good friend Barbara of Connecticut (not to be confused with Barbara of San Diego, another good friend and poster here) alerted me to Quantcast.com.  In the same vein as Alexa.com, Quantcast gives web site owners some valuable statistics (once your site meets some minimum traffic requirements.)  But as an experienced analyst of web stats, I can tell you that Quantcast gives some really useful statistics that might enable you to explore various aspects of your web based business in some very helpful ways. In short, I give Quantcast a thumbs up at this point and it is different from Alexa in a most pleasing manner. 

Here is what Wikipedia has to say, and I have put some of the crucial differences between Alexa and Quantcast in bold:

"Quantcast is a Web site that is based on viewing the statistics of other Web sites. Quantcast Corporation's prime focus is to analyze the Internet's Websites in order to obtain accurate statistics. 

Like Alexa, Quantcast rates Webpages by ranks. However, Quantcast does not require a tool bar to be installed upon one's browser to obtain statistics. Instead participating websites voluntarily insert Quantcast HTML code inside Web pages they wish to have included in statistics. 

This code allows Quantcast to keep track of the traffic directed towards those Web sites. Using this mechanism Quantcast can providethorough details about Web pages created by participating publishers. Some of this information includes, for example, whether the Web page viewer is a male or female, whether the average viewer makes $30,000 USD annually or $100,000 USD annually, the age group of the viewer and the amount of U.S. homes the Website reaches. 

This information is provided by inference: comparing and correlating the information received from one participating publisher with another. The inferences are possible because the Quantcast code causes the user's browser to access Quantcast's servers, at which time they can log the user's IP address and information Quantcast places in cookies that are storedin the user's browser. 

The cookies significantly aid in making inferences. Quantcast also provides affinities revealing other popular sites that the average viewer browses. This is possible by tracking "referrer"information that is normally included as part of every HTTP request made by theuser's browser. For instance a person browsing a page on Quantcast aimed towards music might also browse sites based on music downloads. "

Millions Await You, Bunkie

A very informative tip came in early this am from my good friend Ryan of London, England:  millions of dollars being handed out by www.newschallenge.org

I took a bit of time to research the foundation behind all this free money and discovered it was, indeed, a very well known group.  I had never heard of this particular funding opportunity, so I am very happy Ryan told me about it.  There are but two weeks left for applications to be filed for this particular grant

Note that online records show that in 2005, for example, the fund approved 78 million dollars in grants.

If you or someone you know appears to qualify for this particular (and spectacular) give away, please encourage them to learn more and perhaps (very quickly) submit their application.

Here is what the Foundation itself has to say:

We’re giving away around $5 million in 2009 for the development and distribution of neighborhood and community-focused projects, services, and programs.If you have a great idea that will improve local online news, deepen community engagement, bring Web 2.0 tools to local neighborhoods, develop publishing platforms and standards to support local conversations or innovate how we visualize, experience or interact with information, we’d like to see it! You have the opportunity to win funding for your project and support within a vibrant community of media, tech, and community-oriented people who want to improve the world.There are three rules to follow to apply to the 2008-09 Knight News Challenge:Use or create digital, open-source technology as the code base.Serve the public interest.Benefit one or more specific geographic communities.


Commenting on a Comment

I noticed that the first comment I received on one of my blogs was from Barbara Yager.  I am quite honored and very pleased to see a comment from her. To have someone as busy as Barbara respond is very cool.  She happens to be a VP for one of the largest banking concerns in San Diego.  Thanks for your thoughtful comment, Barbara! I won't always comment regarding comments I publish, but given the author, I thought it appropriate to do so in this case.  

How Bad is the Weather?

I live in a remote area of San Diego County which is itself larger than some states and a few of the smaller nations of Europe.  Presently I am in the middle of a nasty windstorm. These "Santa Ana" winds bring a lot of fear to the small community of Julian where I live because they happen during our October fire season.  I've been evacuated three times during very bad fires over the last five years.  There is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt during our fire seasons.  Currently a couple of fires are already causing trouble in the County. One of them is at Camp Pendleton, the huge military base near the ocean.  The fire is so big I could see the flames from my deck last night even though I am an hour or more away by road from the Camp (but maybe 30-40 miles as the crow flies.)

  When I moved here five years ago there were 600 homes in my town. 300 of them have been destroyed by fire so far, so now there are only 300 left, not including the few that have been rebuilt. The last major fire burned all the way from the mountains to near the beach, taking out homes as it moved rapidly down the mountain.  Many homes in the city of San Diego itself were lost.  It was a hurricane of fire, as it were. 

Right now, in the business world, as you know, a fire storm of sorts is raging. How is all of this mess  effecting the world of start ups and the venture capital community?

The fact is, we don't know, because the numbers aren't in yet. It will take a quarter or two for us to figure out if the number of start ups, and the over all amount of money being invested by VCs, are down compared to previous years. Early 2008 appeared to be robust for investments in start ups.  Third quarter stats will be revealing.  Those stats we have now were accumulated before the Wall Street meltdown led to a locking up of the world's credit network.

However, I am expecting to see an even greater number of start ups to be created, despite the trouble on Wall Street, and really, because of the trouble on Wall Street. 

A lot of people are losing their jobs right now.  Many of the people who lose their jobs will find themselves feeling all "entrepreneurial" and create their own start ups.  They may find it more difficult than normal to seek out venture capital funds, but they will fund themselves first with money from friends and family and angel investors still appear to be a good avenue for investment funds for early stage companies.   

I have a feeling that some very successful companies will be founded during this "economic crisis." Expect, too, for a general feeling of hope in the marketplace to ensue after the election if Obama is elected, which is almost sure at this point to happen.  Time will tell if Obama, if elected, can lead the USA (and the world) to solid economic ground. I'm pulling for him.  Anyway, expect November to show some new hope for the world's economic situation with related upticks in the Market. 

Remember this, as well, the formal angel investment groups and the formal venture capital groups exist, and can continue to exist, only by handing out money to worthy start ups.  While the flow of cash might diminish, I don't expect it to dry up completely. 

No storm lasts forever. 










Avoiding Bad Web Design Guys

There are a lot of cruddy web design companies. The list seems endless.  In the great sea of web designers it is very hard to fine a good one.  

I have a good one I can recommend though: The Program Management. (www.Theprogrammanagement.com)

Ethan, the head cheese there, is a good friend of mine.  He's been to the house, ate the food in the house, and gone back to Portland where he lives. I love the guy.

He is an expert at both web design AND marketing, and I work closely with him on a very special project that I hope will be launched early in 2009.  

I really need him to redesign my own website.  I'll get to that one of these days. I tend to keep my own sites somewhat simple as I code them myself. I also get a lot of business coming in (I help start ups in various ways, funding, development, introductions, technology creation,  business advice etc, etc) so if my site was REALLY COOL I might get too much work. Never know. 

But if I wanted a really flashy and great site Ethan is who I would use. 

Maybe next time he stays with me I'll put him to work on redoing my site.  Check out his site. And, take a look at www.richardromanphotography.com/ for a really cool site Ethan recently did. Too cool.